One Position, Four Bets
Turning conviction into tradeable risk: same label, different bets across AAPL/NVDA, XOM/KMI, and MAG7.
Research
Methodology, empirical studies, and the One Position, Four Bets series — hierarchical orthogonal decomposition applied to positions, 13F books, and mutual-fund panels.
The One Position, Four Bets series and empirical working papers first; shorter product and methodology notes below.
Series parts and working papers — figures, samples, and replication detail.
Turning conviction into tradeable risk: same label, different bets across AAPL/NVDA, XOM/KMI, and MAG7.
Market, thematic, and stock-specific risk across Buffett, Ackman, Lone Pine, Tiger Global, and Baupost — and what survives the 45-day filing lag.
Stripping market and sector noise to isolate subsector risk.
Subsector ETF value, joint optimization, and executable hedge layers across 9,074 US mutual funds
Early ownership, active conviction, and residual attribution in U.S. mutual-fund managers, 2019–2026
Top-decile rank persistence, active-share comparison, and tail-stratified inference across 1,000 top-AUM US mutual funds
A within-style manager-efficiency framework powered by the ERM3 cascade
Shorter explainers on API surfaces, screening, and how to read the cascade.
How RiskModels picks the right hedge depth automatically, per stock, per day
Vasicek peer-β cross-sections expose what sector ETFs paper over
Server-side rank screening turns the universe into one queryable cross-section
Part 1 — The problem. Custodial reporting obscures concentration. Four names that looked diversified drew down 50%+ together in 2022. Style factors (Growth, Value) are symptoms, not drivers — subsectors are the real unit of risk.
Part 2 — The manager. The same decomposition applied to five concentrated 13F filers: how portfolio risk partitions across market, thematic, and stock-specific layers; how active structure compounds in dollars; and what survives a realistic filing lag.
Part 3 — The attribution standard. Hierarchical orthogonalized regression: a three-level cascade (Market → Sector → Subsector) that strips embedded exposures and produces clean, additive variance attribution. No double-counting, no multicollinearity, no latent factors.
RiskModels ecosystem
RiskModels.org stays the credibility layer: methodology, proof, and exhibits. Product links are kept contextual so the research remains the primary object.
Research
Methodology, article series, and public exhibits for institutional review.
Read the researchAPI
REST API, SDKs, CLI, and MCP-ready endpoints for reproducible decomposition calls.
Open API docsDashboard
Web application surface for portfolio workflows, dashboards, and authenticated product use.
Open web app